Maritime INTERREG IIIA (Ireland/Wales) 2000 - 2006 Priority 2 / Measure 1. Marine & Coastal Development and the Environment

Predictive Irish Sea Models - PRISM.

PRISM Final Report

To download PRISM Final Report go to the downloads page.

Abstract

Climate change and its potential impact on the coastline of the Irish Sea is a problem of high urgency that confronts both Ireland and Wales. Central and local government agencies in both countries must develop plans for dealing with beach erosion and the threat of flooding due to increased storminess and storm surge. In addition, new EU water quality regulations will require a greater understanding of the physical processes that control flushing and dispersion in the near shore waters. This project will help to solve such problems by taking modelling skills and products developed within the academic and research communities and making them available to a wider user community through the use of web-based interfaces. The project will be wide ranging and will cover:

• The development of web sites that will show detailed tidal maps, wave conditions and coastal wind forecasts to promote tourism and leisure activities.
• Simulations of near shore sediment transport and pollutant dispersion.
• The impact of increased storminess and rising sea levels on beach stability.
• Storm surge forecasts.

Objectives

• Development of predictive models of the Irish Sea and selected inshore regions
  
• A website will be developed to display the output from the models developed within PRISM. 
• The websites will also be used to facilitate the tourism and leisure industries by providing forecasts of wind, sailing and surfing conditions.

Specific near shore sites within Ireland and Wales have been selected and will be used to demonstrate the merits of the collaborative framework and the techniques devised.

Methodology

Wind forecasts provided by Met Eireann in Dublin are being used to drive a suite of oceanographic models that simulate the hydrodynamic, temperature, surge and wave conditions within the INTERREG region of the Irish Sea. Ranging from large scale models of the North Atlantic down to local scale models of selected coastal regions, the simulations are run daily to provide 48 hour forecasts of the oceanographic conditions within the Irish Sea. The hydrodynamics are simulated at NUIG by two models: the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory’s 3-D POLCOMS model and the US-developed Princeton Ocean Model (POM) code; POM is also used to simulate surge and solute transport conditions.  The wave forecasts are produced at UWB using the PRO-WAM model. All of the models are run routinely each day in an operational manner and the Irish Sea region results are then transferred to DCMNR in Dublin for display on the PRISM web pages.

As part of local scale pollution studies, model simulations have been made both in Ireland and Wales. The team at NUIG have simulated the Dublin Bay hydrodynamics and solute transport conditions using the DIVAST code which was developed at Cardiff University. In a parallel study, colleagues at Cardiff and Aberystwyth Universities have used the DIVAST code to reproduce the water quality at Pwllheli. The Bangor team, working closely with the local authority, applied hydrodynamic, wave and sediment transport models at a range of scales to simulate sand transport in the coastal zone.

The models are being used to tackle real problems involving sediment transport and water quality. In addition, the computer systems can be used to promote tourism and leisure activities. In particular, this has included the development of detailed maps of tidal and wind-driven currents that are being displayed on web pages to promote sailing activities. Models have also been developed to predict wave conditions on beaches in support of surfing.

The project web pages are being used to publicise the project and facilitate communication between the partners. Web techniques have been developed to access the output from the models and to allow the display of model output generated by the PRISM models. Web pages have been created to display model parameters that have relevance to tourism and leisure activities. 

Benefits

• A better understanding of the environment through the use of computer models that will result in practical tools suitable for use in planning and management decisions.
• The project is tackling issues of sand transport in coastal waters, due to the action of wind, tide and waves, and is developing predictive methods so that the impact of such events can be predicted by local and central government agencies.
• The project is considering issues of water quality in coastal waters and developing tools that can be used to promote sustainable management and enhance environmental quality for both humans and wildlife.
• The results and tools that are being developed within the project have been placed on web pages that the public will be able to access. One aspect of the work will concern safety at sea and the education of the public to the dangers that are inherent in marine leisure activities.

Irish project partners

Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources (Irish Project Manager)
Enterprise Ireland
NUI Galway
Met Éireann

Welsh Project Partners

University of Wales, Bangor (Welsh Project Manager)
Aberystwyth University
Cardiff University
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratories

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